Research and analysis

Risk assessment on the likelihood of spread of epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV-8) to Great Britain from the European Union in October 2023 (executive summary)

Published 18 June 2025

This summary outlines a qualitative risk assessment which has been completed to assess the risk of ruminants in Great Britain becoming infected with epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus serotype 8 (EHDV-8) through the legal trade and windborne spread of midges from an EU member state.

This was first completed in August 2023 and further updated in October 2023.

Please note that this is the executive summary only. To request the full risk assessment, please contact [email protected].Ìý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp overall annual likelihood of entry of EHDV into Great Britain was low (event is rare but does occur) with medium uncertainty. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp annual likelihood of exposure of a susceptible animal in Great Britain to an infected vector was considered medium (event occurs regularly) with medium uncertainty. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp potential consequences of an EHDV incursion in Great Britain were moderate with high uncertainty.Ìý

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Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is responsible for epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD), an infectious, non-contagious disease of wild and domestic ruminants, which is transmitted by arthropod vectors, principally Culicoides biting midges. At least 7 different viral serotypes have been recognised.

EHD was reported for the first time in Europe in November 2022, affecting southern Spain and the Italian islands of Sardinia and Sicily, caused by EHDV serotype 8 (EHDV-8). »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp original report considered the annual risk of entry of EHDV into Great Britain from Spain and Italy. It also considered the subsequent exposure routes for susceptible, farmed livestock and free-living, wild animals and the potential consequences of an incursion of EHDV into Great Britain.

Further EHDV outbreaks were reported in Portugal on 13 July 2023 and southern France on 21 September 2023. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapprefore, an update to the risk assessment was undertaken to assess the annual likelihood of EHDV entry into Great Britain from each of the affected EU member states (Spain, Italy, France, and Portugal).

Products of animal origin are not thought to transmit EHDV. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp main pathways considered for entry of EHDV into Great Britain are:

  • import of live, infected animalsÌý
  • wind-based movement of infected vectorsÌý
  • import of contaminated germplasmÌý
  • mechanical vector movementÌý

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Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus serotype 8 (EHDV-8).

Risk questionsÌý

1) What is the annual likelihood of EHDV entering Great Britain in 2023 from EU member states?Ìý

2) What are the subsequent exposure routes to susceptible farmed livestock and free-living wild animals (including cattle, sheep, goats, deer, and camelids), and the potential consequences of an incursion of EHDV in Great Britain?

3) What are the potential consequences of an EHDV incursion into Great Britain?�

Main findingsÌý

Entry pathwaysÌý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp most likely route for EHDV to enter Great Britain was through the import of live, infected animals. This pathway had a low annual likelihood of entry (event is rare but does occur) with medium uncertainty. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp risk assessment considered that EHDV was present only in Spain, Italy, France and Portugal, where it had been reported at the time of writing. Many EU member states are currently prohibited from sending live animals to Great Britain due to EHDV and bluetongue outbreaks. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp low likelihood remained due to the possibility of silent or unreported spread into other European countries before circulating disease were detected in that member state and subsequently, into Great Britain.Ìý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp annual likelihood that the virus would enter Great Britain through either contaminated germplasm or mechanical vectors was very low (medium uncertainty for vectors, high uncertainty for germplasm). Wind-borne entry had a negligible risk with medium uncertainty.Ìý

Exposure pathwaysÌý

Native Culicoides (biting midge) species could become infected with EHDV if they were to feed off an imported, infected animal. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýappse midges could then spread the virus to other susceptible animals. »Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp risk assessment considered the likelihood of livestock or wild animals in Great Britain becoming infected by an infected midge in Great Britain. If EHDV were circulating in Culicoides species in Great Britain, then the annual likelihood that livestock or wild animals would become infected was considered medium (occurs regularly) with medium uncertainty.

Consequence assessmentÌý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp impact of an EHDV incursion into Great Britain was difficult to quantify, as it would depend upon the size and duration of the incursion. While there is no public health risk associated with EHDV, the costs of control in free-living and captive deer and livestock populations would be substantial. Given the welfare, trade, social and economic impacts, the potential consequences of an incursion were considered moderate with high uncertainty. ‘Moderateâ€� is defined as a minor impact to a large population, with significant but manageable modifications to normal operations, including increased operation costs and/or increased monitoring.

Key uncertaintiesÌý

Entry assessmentÌý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp key uncertainties were:

  • the prevalence of EHDV among farmed and wild animals in affected EU member states
  • the robustness of surveillance measures in affected EU member states and their ability to detect EHDV cases, particularly in wildlifeÌý
  • the transport routes, including journey times, stopping times and locations, used to import live animals from EHDV affected EU member statesÌý
  • the exact nature and efficacy of the insecticides and repellents applied to vehicles used to transport live ruminants into Great BritainÌý
  • maximum dispersal distance for Culicoides spp. over land and waterÌý

Exposure assessmentÌý

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp uncertainties in this section were:

  • competence of Culicoides species in Great Britain as vectors for EHDVÌý
  • lack of data on deer population densities in different parts of Great Britain and their behaviour around farm premisesÌý

Consequence assessment

»Ê¹ÚÌåÓýapp uncertainties in this section were:

  • the lack of data on the effect of an EHDV outbreak in Great Britain including trade consequences