Green Gas Support Scheme expenditure forecast statement for the quarter ending 30 April 2025

Question 1

Expenditure Forecast Statement

Accepted Answer

皇冠体育app forecast and degression threshold

皇冠体育app Green Gas Support Scheme Regulations 2021 require that听the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)听publishes a quarterly forecast of expenditure on the scheme. 皇冠体育app Expenditure Forecast is used to assess whether a tariff degression will take place in any given quarter by comparing it to the scheme鈥檚 Expenditure Threshold.

Each quarterly Expenditure Forecast and Expenditure Threshold figure is for spend over 12 months from the end of the quarter. 皇冠体育app statement for the quarter ending 31 January covers expenditure to 31 January the following year, for the quarter ending 30 April until 30 April the following year, and so on.

Table: Schedule for Expenditure Forecast Statements and tariff change

Quarter ending	Publication of Expenditure Forecast Statement and, if applicable, Tariff Change Notice	Ofgem听publishes tariff	Tariff change takes effect
31 January	1 March	15 March	1 April
30 April	1 June	15 June	1 July
31 July	1 September (simultaneously with the Annual Tariff Review)	NA	NA
31 October	1 December	15 December	1 January

If forecasted spend exceeds the scheme鈥檚 Expenditure Threshold for a quarter, then this triggers a tariff rate degression. A degression reduces all scheme tariffs by 10% compared to the previous rates. All applications that have had a Stage 1 application approved prior to a degression will have been issued a Provisional Tariff Guarantee Notice (PTGN), which means they are guaranteed the tariff rate in place at that time should they become fully registered on the scheme.

If a degression is triggered, then听DESNZ听will also publish a Tariff Change Notice simultaneously with the Expenditure Forecast Statement. 皇冠体育app new tariff rate and start date will be published by听Ofgem听on the 15th of the month following the publication of the Forecast Statement, either 15 March, 15 June, or 15 December. 皇冠体育app tariff change will come into force on the first day of the following month.

Expenditure Degression Thresholds are reviewed and can be revised annually following the听GGSS鈥檚 Annual Tariff Review (ATR), published by 1 September each year.听ATRs听can be found on the听GGSS听Annual Tariff Review page. New thresholds, if they are changed, then come into force on 1 October, applying to the next quarterly assessment. Degression thresholds are published in Expenditure Forecast Statements and also on the听GGSS听budget management page.

罢丑别听GGSS听is open to new applicants until 31 March 2028; tariff degressions cannot occur once the scheme has closed.

Expenditure Forecast methodology

皇冠体育app Expenditure Forecast figures are based on expected maximum spend on all 鈥榬elevant producers鈥� as defined in the Green Gas Support Scheme Regulations 2021 (Regulation 17). This covers all producers that, at the least, have a 鈥榩ending tariff guarantee鈥�, meaning they have passed Stage 2 of the application process and have not had the tariff guarantee, or their scheme registration rejected or withdrawn.

Spend for each plant is calculated based on its 鈥榚ligible biomethane鈥� volume, meaning the amount of biomethane that a participant is or will be entitled to supply if the application is fully accredited. In effect, this means that the forecast is based on the full tariff amount that would be paid to plants if they injected gas at their full eligible capacity from the date that they are awarded a tariff guarantee.

皇冠体育app spend forecast increases as more applications advance through the application process and accreditations are granted. It differs in its approach to that used to set the听GGSS听scheme budgets, which includes expected spend on plants regardless of whether they have yet applied and is a forecast of actual spend using Production Factors rather than taking the full value of the eligible capacity (more details available on the听GGSS听Budget Management page).

This quarter

This Expenditure Forecast Statement forecasts spend for 12 months from 1 May 2025.

皇冠体育app table below shows the latest Expenditure Forecast and previous quarters鈥� forecasts as compared to the current Expenditure Degression Threshold. It confirms the quarters in which degressions have been triggered.

This Statement鈥檚 expenditure forecast is 拢100.64 with 20 applications having passed Stage 2 of the application process. 皇冠体育app forecast reflects only the progression of applications, not the expected actual spend on the scheme. See听Expenditure Forecast methodology.

罢补产濒别:听GGSS听Expenditure Forecasts and Expenditure Degression Threshold, as of 1 June 2025.

Quarter ending	Forecast expenditure (拢M) as at 01/06/2025	Expenditure Degression Threshold (拢M), as at 01/06/2025	Has the threshold been breached (YES/NO)
Date of final day in the quarter	Expected expenditure for following 12-month period based on data provided by听Ofgem	This is the expenditure forecast level that triggers a tariff degression	Indicator variable
31/01/2022	0.00	-	NO
30/04/2022	32.51	81.24	NO
31/07/2022	33.95	92.44	NO
31/10/2022	35.69	103.80	NO
31/01/2023	36.17	115.34	NO
30/04/2023	43.50	127.05	NO
31/07/2023	54.35	139.90	NO
31/10/2023	53.24	152.89	NO
31/01/2024	47.87	166.00	NO
30/04/2024	67.23	179.43	NO
31/07/2024	73.05	193.33	NO
31/10/2024	77.49	207.36	NO
31/01/2025	96.29	223.71	NO
30/04/2025	100.64	240.05	NO
31/07/2025	-	256.40	-
31/10/2025	-	272.74	-
31/01/2026	-	289.09	-
30/04/2026	-	305.43	-
31/07/2026	-	321.78	-
31/10/2026	-	338.13	-
31/01/2027	-	339.42	-
30/04/2027	-	340.79	-
31/07/2027	听	342.33	听
31/10/2027	-	343.91	-
31/01/2028	-	345.51	-

Graph of Expenditure Forecasts and thresholds

皇冠体育app graph below shows the current scheme Expenditure Degression Thresholds and Expenditure Forecasts.

Question 2

Scheme background

Accepted Answer

皇冠体育app Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) provides tariff-support for biomethane produced via anaerobic digestion and injected into the gas grid. Producers will receive tariff payments for a 15-year lifetime. It is funded by the Green Gas Levy (GGL) on licensed GB fossil fuel gas suppliers.

During peak years of production, the听GGSS听will produce enough green gas to heat around 250,000 homes annually, replacing the equivalent amount of natural gas, which would otherwise be used.

皇冠体育app scheme opened in England, Scotland and Wales on 30 November 2021 and closes to new applications on 31 March 2028. It follows the Non-Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive (NDRHI) scheme which closed to new applicants on 31 March 2021.

罢丑别听GGSS听policy is set by the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) and the scheme is administered by听Ofgem.

Find more information about the听GGSS听and the听GGL:

Question 3

Glossary

Accepted Answer

Anaerobic digestion听- A biological process by which organic matter is broken down by bacteria releasing biogas, which can then be treated and upgraded to biomethane
Assessment dates听- 皇冠体育appse are the dates听DESNZ听refers to when calculating forecast expenditure over or reporting expenditure. 皇冠体育app assessment dates are the final days of each quarter. 皇冠体育app relevant dates are 30 April, 31 July, 31 October and 31 January in any year.
Biogas听鈥� A gas mixture of methane, carbon dioxide and small amounts of other gases produced by the anaerobic digestion process.
Biomethane听鈥� Pure or near-pure methane gas, produced by treating biogas to upgrade it, removing the听CO2听element and other gases.
Data听(from听Ofgem) - This is data provided to听DESNZ听by听Ofgem听detailing the number of applications it has received for accreditation, as well all installations it has already accredited by each assessment date.
Forecast expenditure听- 皇冠体育app forecast is based on the full tariff amount that would be paid to plants if they injected gas at their full eligible capacity from the date that they are awarded a tariff guarantee.
Forecast expenditure threshold听- This is a spending threshold which if exceeded will lead to a tariff reduction of 10%.
Meter听鈥� an individual measuring point for determining the amount of gas supplied to a premises. Energy suppliers charge for supplying each meter.
Regulations听- 皇冠体育app Green Gas Support Scheme Regulations 2021.
Tariff Change Notice听- This is a quarterly statement published by听DESNZ听which sets out whether any tariffs will be reduced in the next tariff period. 皇冠体育app Tariff Change Notice must be published on the GOV.UK website by 1 June, 1 September, 1 December and 1 March in any given year. It will accompany the Expenditure Forecast Statement and be published on the same gov.uk webpage.
Tariff period听- This is a 3-month period commencing 1 January, 1 April, 1 July or 1 October in any given year.
Tariffs听鈥� payments made to accredited producers of biomethane for volumes injected into the gas grid.
皇冠体育app Levy听鈥� the Green Gas Levy, which funds the听GGSS. 皇冠体育app levy is charged on energy suppliers according to the number of energy meters they supply. It was charged from 1 April 2022.

皇冠体育app